Let us start the analysis by checking the strength for Alianza Petrolera FC and Millonarios FC. As you see in the Delta figure, Millonarios FC is calculated as the strongest team.
The Poission calculation leads to winning probabilities, which computes the guest team Millonarios FC as the favourite in this match.
ODDS & VALUE
Both, the Strength- and the Poisson-analysis calculate Millonarios FC as the favourite and Alianza Petrolera FC as the underdog. However, it is also important to check whether the market offers fair odds to bet on Millonarios FC or if the odds are not high enough and one has to take a risk bet on the opponent Alianza Petrolera FC or bet the draw.
In comparison to the model odds, the current market odds offer a fair risk-reward ratio for a bet on the away team. It is recommended to bet on Millonarios FC with current market odds of 2.66. Please be adviced to take a bet only if your bookmaker offers odds larger than 2.07 for Millonarios FC.